Troops in Iraq for a ground invasion against ISIS?

http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/jordan%E2%80%99s-growing-role-anti-isis-coalition

US talk of an imminent ground offensive in Iraq against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) emerged as Jordan’s role has transformed into what looks like an advanced military base.

Since the US-led international coalition against ISIS was first announced at a Jeddah conference last September, its operational dynamics and goals have become ever more clear. One of the first things to transpire was that different strategies were being employed in Syria and Iraq. A few days ago, the coalition’s coordinator, retired US General John Allen, announced that a ground campaign will begin against ISIS in Iraq “within weeks” under Iraqi leadership while “the coalition will provide major firepower.” He pointed out that “coalition forces are preparing 12 Iraqi brigades, which have been receiving training and arms to pave the way for the ground operation.”

What is new about Allen’s pronouncements, which were made during an interview with Jordan’s official Petra news agency, are that they publicize the (rough) timing of the offensive. Talk of training and preparation for a ground offensive has been heard since the campaign to “liberate” the areas under ISIS control began late last summer. US newspapers wrote at length about these plans and about cooperation with Iraqi tribes. In addition, Washington had urged the Iraqi government to adopt draft laws (such as the national guard) and governance models suitable for expanding the spectrum of forces participating in the “liberation” operations, specifically in the Anbar province.

Since ISIS’ expansion in northern Iraq, liberating the city of Mosul became a predicament for the Iraqi government in terms of determining the forces that will participate and the human and military resources required for such an operation. Iraqi political sources say: “The Iraqi government agrees, generally speaking, with the idea that liberating the central and southern areas surrounding Baghdad should be undertaken by the government along with the Volunteer Forces while liberating the western areas should be the responsibility of local forces with US support.”

Iraqi sources argue that “the ground offensive which is being talked about cannot be dissociated from the reality of US military return to Iraq after its departure in 2011.” They add: “What is being said about the presence of some 3,500 US consultants in the field to assist Iraqi forces is inaccurate. The real figure for weeks now could be as high as 10,000, most of them combatants.”

This news coincides with announcements by US officials that, by Wednesday, the White House is going to ask Congress for a new authorization to use force against ISIS. This paves the way for lawmakers to vote for the first time on this campaign that has actually been ongoing for six months. The draft resolution that the US administration will send to lawmakers will be the first time the president seeks a formal authorization to use military force to fight ISIS.

Reports of burning the Jordanian pilot Moaz al-Kasasbeh to death spurred Jordan to assume a larger military and media role within the so-called war against ISIS. In recent days, Amman dramatically increased its aerial raids against the group while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reversed a decision to suspend its involvement in coalition strikes. UAE sent a squadron of F-16s to Jordan “conducting air strikes yesterday morning against ISIS positions.”

How the Jordanian revenge beheading only unites ISIS with Al Qaeda and al-Nusra for the West's proxy war on Syria and MidEast

http://carnegie-mec.org/2015/02/04/wider-implications-for-jordan-s-revenge-against-islamic-state/i15c?mkt_tok=3RkMMJWWfF9wsRomrfCcI63Em2iQPJWpsrB0B%2FDC18kX3RUtJL%2Bbfkz6htBZF5s8TM3DUVtFXqBR9kEAS7M%3D

Neither of the jihadists executed by Jordan are connected with ISIS in its current incarnation, but with al Qaeda. For example, one of them is Ziad Karbuli, an Iraqi national linked with the late al Qaeda in Iraq leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and who had been detained in Jordan on death row since 2006. Through their execution, therefore, Jordan has inadvertently strengthened the link between ISIS and al Qaeda.

This is significant because the two groups have been engaged in a battle over resources and legitimacy since the start of the Syrian conflict. ISIS has been trying to present itself as the "true" al Qaeda, causing the latter to increase its military activities worldwide as well as within Syria to affirm its influence. Despite initial condemnation of the brutality of ISIS, al Qaeda's Syrian offshoot Jabhat al-Nusra has recently begun engaging in similar activities itself, such as beheadings and other forms of public violence.

One reason behind this is that al-Nusra has felt upstaged by the Islamic State and has escalated its violent acts in order to assert its presence in the face of its rival. But another reason is that the actions of the international coalition set up to fight ISIS have pushed the two groups together.

The coalition airstrikes in Syria have targeted both ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra, thereby presenting the groups with a common enemy. The Syrian regime's attacks on ISIS following the organization's advance in Iraq in June 2014 also shifted the position of ISIS away from the regime, aligning the organization with Jabhat al-Nusra, which still regards fighting the Assad regime as its primary objective. In the Qalamoun area bordering Syria and Lebanon, ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra have begun cooperating against the Syrian regime and Hezbollah.

The coalition's mediocre support for the moderate Syrian opposition in southern areas of Syria not only contributed to the Free Syrian Army's vulnerability to attack by al-Nusra brigades but also pushed some members of the two entities to maintain a working relationship based on material necessity and backed by sharing the mutual goal of fighting the Assad regime.

Today, several towns along Syria's south-western border witness al-Nusra presence. In the north, a number of towns have shifted their alliance from al-Nusra to ISIS due to a number of reasons, from fear to coercion to seeking material gains.

Now that ISIS and al-Nusra have been pushed towards one another even more as a result of the Jordanian executions, a similar shift of allegiance is likely in southern Syrian towns as well. If that were to happen, Jordan, which has borders with southern Syria, would find itself with ISIS on its doorstep overnight.

This bears bad news for the coalition. The south is where the Free Syrian Army retains more control than anywhere else in Syria, and where the coalition is planning on empowering the moderate opposition through training and weapons provision. Being confronted with ISIS in the area derails this plan.

The presence of ISIS in the south would also push Jordan to escalate the level of its engagement in the Syrian conflict. It will be forced to change from a supporter of its patrons, the United States and Saudi Arabia, in their fights against ISIS and into a participant in frontline warfare with the organization. This will in turn trigger further entrenchment by not just those two countries but also other members of the coalition in the war as they scramble to aid their Jordanian ally in its fight against ISIS.

Such a development would heighten the reactive nature of the coalition's strategy towards ISIS.

Carnegie Interview with New York Times journalist regarding ISIS burning to death of Jordanion pilot has swayed public opinion completely

http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/02/03/jordan-finds-no-compromise-is-possible-with-islamic-state/i1q4

ROD NORDLAND: You know, a week ago, people were saying, and we were reporting actually, that a lot of Jordanians thought this shouldn’t be their war, they shouldn’t be a part of it.

And there’s been a huge change in attitude, even before this awful video of his murder came out. Even before that, Jordanians were really rallying around the flag and turning against ISIS and its tactics. And I think if they thought that this video was going to turn Jordanians away from joining in the coalition, I think they badly misjudged the mood. And I think we will see even more support for Jordan’s role.

GWEN IFILL: How do you stop them from doing this?

MARWAN MUASHER: You stop them first militarily, but also culturally.

I think we need a cultural war of values to address the very grievances that, you know, a lot of people have and are frustrated enough to move them to join such barbaric groups.

And it is a war that, you know, the region has to take for itself. They need to be fought militarily, but the underlying causes of frustration and marginalization have also to be addressed. And I hope that is going to be the case. The king, as I said, made it very clear that this is a cultural war, that the region needs to make it clear that Islam, you know, has no place in it for such groups.

Saudi's King Abdullah dies and King Salman succeeds his throne vowing to continue all current relations

Sources:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-30945324

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/22/saudi-arabia-king-salman_n_6527914.html

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/22/middleeast/saudi-arabia-king-abdullah-dies/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/22/king-abdullah-dies-disrupting-saudi-arabia-at-a-sensitive-time/




Key Points from BBC:




His 79-year-old half-brother, Salman, has been confirmed as the new king.

Within hours of his accession to the throne of the oil-rich kingdom, King Salman vowed to maintain the same policies as his predecessors.

"We will continue adhering to the correct policies which Saudi Arabia has followed since its establishment," he said in a speech broadcast on state television.

Saudi Arabia under King Salman faces a number of challenges. The first is ensuring the succession passes smoothly without any divisive jockeying for power within the ruling family. Then there is the ongoing threat from jihadists, both at home and across its borders.

King Salman called on the royal family's Allegiance Council to recognise Muqrin as his heir.

US President Barack Obama expressed his personal sympathies, and those of the American people, on Abdullah's death.

"As a leader, he was always candid and had the courage of his convictions. One of those convictions was his steadfast and passionate belief in the importance of the US-Saudi relationship as a force for stability and security in the Middle East and beyond," he said.

Key points from Huffington Post:

As king, Salman, 78, will have to navigate regional turmoil caused by wars in Iraq and Syria, as well as a bitter rivalry with Shi'ite Muslim power Iran and a lingering threat from an al Qaeda wing in neighboring Yemen.

The defense portfolio involved running the kingdom's top-spending ministry, which used massive arms purchases to bolster ties with allies such as the United States, Britain and France.

"He's intelligent, political, in touch with the conservative base but also quite modern-minded," said a former diplomat in Riyadh interviewed about the kingdom's succession process.

He also argued against the introduction of democracy in the kingdom, citing regional and tribal divisions, and told the ambassador that a solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict was necessary for Middle East stability.

Jordan said Prince Salman had initially refused to believe Saudis participated in the Sept 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, but his attitude changed in the face of increasingly solid evidence that 15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudis.

"He doesn't blindly accept everything the United States says, but at the same time he understands the importance of the relationship, which goes beyond oil," Jordan said.

Key Points from CNN:

"This is a sad day. The United States has lost a friend, and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the Middle East, and the world has lost a revered leader," U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said in a statement. "He was so proud of the Kingdom's journey, a brave partner in fighting violent extremism who proved just as important as a proponent of peace."

In the context of the kingdom's conservative circles, Abdullah was seen as reformer and often came up against the more hard-line clerics.

Key Points from FP:

The king’s death comes at a delicate time for the oil-rich kingdom, which is struggling with the impact of plunging oil prices domestically, the rise of the Islamic State, and an Iran’s whose influence is growing across the Mideast as its proxies take on increasingly powerful roles in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. Abdullah’s successor will also face an intensifying crisis in Yemen, whose Saudi-backed government has been effectively overthrown by Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. A Saudi official said in a recent interview that Riyadh sees the future of Yemen as “an existential threat.”

Falling oil prices will present a pair of challenges to Salman. First, the kingdom has for decades effectively bought itself internal stability by putting in place a highly generous social welfare system that offers citizens free health care, education, and other perks. That will be more difficult to maintain with oil trading at its lowest price in decades.

Second, Saudi Arabia has used its oil to build one of the Middle East’s most powerful militaries by buying reams of advanced American weaponry and hiring thousands of American and Western troops to train its own forces. The kingdom has in recent years also massively ramped up its financial commitments to the rebels working to unseat Assad and to the new Egyptian government, which it sees as a bulwark against a return of the Islamists who controlled the country during the short reign of former President Mohamed Morsi.

King Abdullah of Jordan on Liberal Values

http://www.hellomagazine.com/royalty/2015011122782/queen-rania-attends-paris-march/

Jordan's King Abdullah II and Queen Rania attend the Paris unity march.

"We're here to demonstrate that we all stand for the values of democracy, of freedom, of freedom of expression, of tolerance."

On one hand they 'stand in solidarity with the people of France in their darkest hour', but on the other they send fighter jets to Iraq and Syria to kill our brothers and sisters!